Vietnam’s steel industry is projected to see a surge in Q3 profits on the back of a rebound in steel prices and higher production output. After months of weak demand and squeezed margins, steelmakers such as Hoa Phat Group and Hoa Sen Group are reporting improved realizations and stronger sales.
Domestic construction recovery, higher exports to ASEAN, and stable raw material costs are supporting margins. Analysts expect Q3 net profit for top producers to rise by 15–20% year-on-year.
Introduction: Vietnam’s Steel Industry Profit Outlook in Q3
The Vietnam steel industry profit Q3 surge is a result of both domestic and global market dynamics. Steel demand, which softened in early FY25 due to sluggish construction and export slowdown, has picked up again. Meanwhile, global steel prices have risen by 8–10%, boosting margins for Vietnamese producers.
The Steel Association of Vietnam (VSA) projects steel production to reach 7.2 million tonnes in Q3 2025, a sharp recovery from the previous quarter.
Key Factors Driving Profit Surge
Steel Price Rebound
- Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increased from $610/tonne in Q2 to $665/tonne in Q3 2025.
- Long product prices (rebars, beams) rose 9% quarter-on-quarter.
Higher Output
- Vietnam’s crude steel output in August 2025 was up 11% YoY.
- Construction steel demand rose due to new housing and infrastructure projects.
Export Momentum
- Exports to ASEAN grew 12% in Q3, with shipments to the Philippines and Indonesia leading.
- The EU demand recovery, partly linked to Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) compliance efforts, also provided opportunities.
Vietnam’s Leading Steel Producers
Hoa Phat Group (HPG)
- Vietnam’s largest steel producer.
- Reported revenue growth of 18% YoY in Q3.
- Net profit expected to cross VND 5,200 billion in Q3.
Hoa Sen Group (HSG)
- Strong performance in galvanized steel exports.
- Increased shipments to ASEAN by 20% in Q3.
Formosa Ha Tinh Steel
- Boosting flat steel production with 7.5 million tonnes annual capacity.
- Benefiting from stable raw material imports.
Outbound link suggestion: Vietnam Steel Association
Financial Performance Snapshot
- Industry Revenue Q3 2025: Estimated VND 125 trillion
- Average EBITDA Margins: 12–14% (vs. 8–9% in Q2)
- Profit Growth: 15–20% YoY across major producers
Global Context and Vietnam’s Position
- China: Cutting output to meet climate targets, reducing global supply.
- EU: CBAM to fully implement in 2026, opening opportunities for low-carbon exporters.
- ASEAN: Regional demand rising, benefiting Vietnam’s exports.
Internal link suggestion: Read our article: Acquisition of Thyssenkrupp Division Could Help Jindal Steel with European CBAM
Expert Commentary
- “Vietnam’s steel recovery is led by domestic demand and favorable export markets. Profitability will remain strong in Q3 and Q4.” — Analyst, SSI Securities
- “Steelmakers like Hoa Phat are well-positioned to capitalize on infrastructure growth and ASEAN trade demand.” — Economist, World Steel Association
Risks and Challenges
- Raw Material Volatility: Iron ore remains above $110/tonne.
- Competition from China: If Chinese exports rise, prices may soften.
- Environmental Regulations: Meeting carbon standards will require high investment.
Future Outlook
Vietnam’s steel demand is projected to grow 7–9% annually through 2026. Rising urbanization, strong FDI inflows into manufacturing, and infrastructure expansion will keep long-term demand intact.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: Why is Vietnam’s steel industry profit rising in Q3 2025?
Due to higher prices, increased production, and export growth.
Q2: Which companies benefit most?
Hoa Phat Group, Hoa Sen Group, and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel.
Q3: How much did steel prices rise?
Domestic HRC rose by 9% to $665/tonne.
Q4: What are the main risks?
Raw material volatility, Chinese competition, and carbon regulations.
Q5: Will the profit trend continue?
Yes, analysts expect momentum through Q4 if demand and exports remain strong.
Conclusion
The Vietnam steel industry profit Q3 surge underscores the resilience of the sector. With prices rebounding, output rising, and exports improving, Vietnamese steelmakers are set for a strong finish to 2025.
While risks remain, Vietnam’s long-term fundamentals, including infrastructure growth and ASEAN trade, make it one of the fastest-growing steel markets globally.